Cyclone ‘Tej’ Looms Over Arabian Sea: IMD Issues Warning as it Intensifies!

The formation of Cyclone 'Tej,' unpredictable trajectories, and diverse model predictions.

Attention India
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Cyclone 'Tej' Looms Over Arabian Sea: IMD Issues Warning as it Intensifies!

20 October 2023, Mumbai: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning about the potential formation of a cyclonic storm named ‘Tej’ in the Arabian Sea. The disturbance, which initially emerged as a low-pressure area in the southeast and southwest Arabian Sea, has since evolved into a depression and is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Saturday morning.

Cyclonic Storm ‘Tej’: A Second Arabian Sea Cyclone in 2023

This year has witnessed the development of the second cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea. Following the conventions for naming cyclones in the Indian Ocean Region, this storm will be christened as ‘Tej.’ According to the IMD, it is anticipated that ‘Tej’ will further strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday, making a trajectory towards the southern coasts of Oman and neighboring Yemen.

Nature’s Unpredictable Dance: The Cyclone’s Potential Deviations

Meteorologists have consistently underlined the inherent unpredictability of storms, which may deviate from their anticipated paths and intensify at unexpected moments. A prime example is Cyclone Biparjoy, which formed in the Arabian Sea in June. Initially moving in a north-northwest direction, it defied forecasts by altering its course, ultimately making landfall between Gujarat’s Madvi and Pakistan’s Karachi.

A Mixed Bag of Cyclone Trajectories

While a significant portion of the models suggests that the cyclonic storm is heading towards the coasts of Yemen and Oman, the Global Forecast System models propose an alternative scenario. These models hint at the possibility of ‘Tej’ re-curving while positioned over the deep central regions of the Arabian Sea, ultimately veering towards the coasts of Pakistan and Gujarat.

Categorizing Cyclonic Intensity: From Storms to Supercyclones

The IMD classifies systems as Cyclonic Storms when their 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds range from 63 to 88 kmph. As the intensity increases, we encounter severe cyclonic storms (89-117 kmph), very severe cyclonic storms (118-165 kmph), and extremely severe cyclonic storms (166-220 kmph). The most powerful of these meteorological phenomena are the supercyclones, characterized by wind speeds exceeding 221 kmph.

Monsoon Dynamics: Transition and Impending Northeast Monsoon

In a recent update, the IMD has announced the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India, occurring four days later than the typical date of October 15. The emergence of northeasterly winds over the southern peninsular region signals the imminent onset of the northeast monsoon, expected to begin within the next three days. These meteorological transitions underscore the ever-evolving dynamics of weather patterns in the Indian subcontinent.

By Yashika Desai

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