The much-awaited southwest monsoon may arrive in Kerala on June 4, about three days after it was supposed to. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), earlier the IMD announced that the monsoon will hit around May 26, but changing weather conditions have pushed its arrival to a later day. Monsoons initially reach India via Kerala but spread gradually across the country, touching most areas by mid-July.

Why Is the Monsoon Important?

Monsoon is one of the major factors that contributes to India’s economy and agriculture. Almost half of India’s population depends on farming for their livelihoods, whereas over 50% of agricultural land receives rain. A good monsoon will tend to improve crop production and improve rural growth.

Heavy Rainfall Alert for Southern States

The IMD said that favorable weather is allowing the monsoon to advance into Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and region around June 4. Heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next weekly period is expected to hit Kerala. Extreme heavy rain may occur in some parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka as well. Thunderstorms with gusty winds of up to 50 kmph are expected to hit many areas of north, central, eastern and southern India.

What's Causing the Delay?

Weather scholars say an approaching typhoon across the western Pacific Ocean and an approaching cyclonic circulation around Lakshadweep are modifying moisture flow from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. This has slowed the monsoon’s advance to Kerala.

El Niño Raises Concern about Monsoon in 2026

This another major factor is El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates that there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026 and a 90% chance that it will continue until November. El Niño is most often associated with weaker monsoon rain and hotter temperatures in India. As a result, weather agencies are watching the situation closely.

Rainfall Forecast Revised

The IMD has slightly reduced its forecast for 2026 for the seasonal rainfall. Recent estimates indicate rain could be equal to around 90% of the long-term average, compared to 92% forecast for the year before. If rainfall is maintained below normal, India may experience its weakest monsoon season in over a decade.

Millions are waiting for relief from the summer heat, and all eyes are now on June 4, when the monsoon shall finally hit Kerala.