According to a research by EU experts, 2023 is the warmest calendar year in the history of global temperature data records dating back to 1850, confirming what a number of extreme weather events and temperature anomalies were suggesting earlier in the year. The final two months are extremely unlikely to have an impact on the ranking because of the disparity between 2023 and the years 2016 and 2020, which were previously classified as the warmest. The warmest period on record spanned the last nine years, from 2015 to 2023.
Based on an assumed 0.88°C offset between the 1850-1900 and 1991-2020 levels, 2023 is projected to be between 1.4°C and 1.5°C warmer than the 1850-1900 level. Here, we address the significance of this offset’s uncertainty in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Global Surface Air Temperature Anomaly
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 50% from the pre-industrial era, trapping heat. Because CO2 has a lengthy half-life, temperatures will rise for a very long period. More than twice as much sea level rise is expected between 2013 and 2022 as it was during the first ten years of the satellite record (1993–2002).
How 2023 embellished climate records
The average global temperature in 2023 was 14.98°C. Compared to the previous greatest yearly value in 2016, this is 0.17°C warmer. In 2023, the two warmest months on record were July and August. December 2023 was the warmest December on record globally with an average temperature of 13.51 degree celsius. “Greenhouse gas levels are record high. Global temperatures are record high. Sea level rise is record high. Antarctic sea ice is record low. It’s a deafening cacophony of broken records,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas in November. Two days in November were the first to be more than 2°C warmer than the 1850–1900 level, with nearly 50% of days being more than 1.5°C warmer. At the end of southern hemisphere winter, the maximum Antarctic sea-ice extent for the year was the lowest on record, a full 1 million km2 (more than the combined area of France and Germany) less than the previous record low. Once more, there was an intense melt season that affected glaciers in North America and Europe
What is causing this heat?
The main cause of the decades-long global ocean warming has been human activity’s release of greenhouse gases that warm the climate. There is more heat in the air because the oceans’ increased temperatures prevent them from absorbing heat from the atmosphere. Marine heatwaves have also become more frequent in 2023.
El Nino events
El Nino’s commencement in 2023 started in July. Weather patterns all throughout the world may be impacted by this recurring climatic occurrence. Increases in sea surface temperature of more than 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) during at least five consecutive three-month seasons are indicative of an El Nino event. The warming El Niño event, which emerged during the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2023 and developed rapidly during summer, is likely to further fuel the heat in 2024 because El Niño typically has the greatest impact on global temperatures after it peaks.
Green House Gas concentrations
“Greenhouse gas levels are record high. Global temperatures are record high. Sea level rise is record high. Antarctic sea ice is recording low. It’s a deafening cacophony of broken records,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas in November. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) blanket the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat. This leads to global warming and climate change.Human activity is a primary driver of climate change caused by GHGs. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere hit an all-time high in 2023.
According to several datasets, there is a good chance that the year 2024 will end with an average temperature that is more than 1.5°C over the pre-industrial level, which is consistent with most forecasts for the year suggesting that it could be warmer than 2023.
By: Gursharan Kaur