NDTV’s opinion polls predict that the Bharatiya Janata Party will win a third straight term in the Lok Sabha in 2024, but it will fall well short of its ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ ambition.
Overview
Of the 543 contested seats, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is predicted to win 365, the Congress-led INDIA could win 122, and 56 seats would go to parties that are not affiliated with either side.
Given that the NDA, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third straight term, is already widely regarded as the winner, the anticipated outcome may not come as a surprise, but the data indicates that the difference in support between the ruling party and the opposition has been closing since 2019.
What’s Happening?
With 353 seats (the BJP received 303) and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance receiving 90, the NDA is predicted to win 365 seats this year, a 3.4% rise from its 2019 results.
Five percent of the NDA’s score in 2019 was higher than the 336 it secured in the 2014 election.
The UPA, the BJP’s main opponent in 2014 and 2019, as well as India in 2024, increased by 50% from 60 to 90 seats in 2019. India’s projected return of 122 in this election represents a 35% increase.
Nine surveys provide the data for the opinion poll, three of which were carried out by ABP-C Voter on December 25, March 12, and April 16. The projected score for the NDA in these three climbs from 295-335 to 366 and finally reaches 373, while the score for INDIA drops from 163 to 156 and ultimately 155.
The Times-ETG forecasts the largest returns for the BJP-led alliance, giving it between 358 and 398 seats and giving India 110–130. In this case, the non-aligned parties receive 64–68 seats.
The NDA receives more than 350 seats from India TV-CNX, Zed News-Matrize, and Times-Matrize combined, whereas INDIA receives fewer than 100 seats. Times Matrize is an exception, giving the bloc 104 seats.
The sample of around 36,000 voters polled on February 8 shows a return of 335 for the NDA, 166 for the INDIA, and 42 for other opposition parties. India Today-C Voter has the closest prediction.
NDA Clean Sweep In UTs And Eight States
Eight states and union territories, including the nation’s capital Delhi, Mr. Modi’s home state of Gujarat, and northeastern Arunachal Pradesh, where the BJP has shown its nationalist muscles in response to Chinese aggression, are expected to see clean sweeps, leading the NDA to victory.
In addition, the NDA is predicted to win all of Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu, building on its victory in the previous year’s Assembly elections.
These states and Union Territories send 72 MPs to the Lok Sabha in total. If the BJP wins these, it will have a substantial advantage in the final count, especially since opinion surveys indicate that the saffron party would, as is generally predicted, perform poorly in South India once more.
The BJP won all seven seats in Delhi, 26 seats in Gujarat, 2 seats in Arunachal Pradesh, 1 seat in Chandigarh, 5 seats in Uttarakhand, 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh, and 1 seat in Daman and Diu in the 2019 election.
Additionally, the party won 24 of Rajasthan’s 25 seats; an ally won the other seat.
BJP Will Rule the Heartland of Hindi
The BJP and its allies will probably thrash challengers in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, as predicted. With 149 seats up for grabs, the NDA has a whopping 137 seat advantage. If accurate, that comeback will nearly equal its results from 2019—it took 39 of 40 seats in Bihar, 74 of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, and 28 of 29 in Madhya Pradesh.
India may gain just five seats in Bihar, where the opposition suffered a severe blow this year when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a founding member of the group, gave back his Janata Dal (United) to the NDA.
Opinion polls suggest that India should brace for a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats, the most of any state. Additionally, the Congress will only gain one seat in Madhya Pradesh.
Maharashtra vs Bengal Face-Offs
It seems probable that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party will emerge victorious from the contest between the Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in Maharashtra, as well as from the BJP’s intense struggle with the Trinamool in Bengal. In addition to dominating Maharashtra (gaining 30 of the 48 seats there), the Mahayuti could hold onto or perhaps gain ground in Bengal five years from now.
With 22 of its 42 seats predicted to go to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s party, the party is projected to win the majority in Bengal. The BJP is expected to win 19 this time around, having won 18 in the previous poll. Ms. Banerjee is an official ally of the Congress-led INDIA group, which may struggle to win more than one seat.
BJP’s “Mission South”
In the past, the saffron party has performed badly in the southern states, especially in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. With vote shares of 3.6% and 2.3% in 2019, it was unable to secure a seat in either.
This year, that might change as two seats are anticipated in the former, where the prime minister has visited ten times in the last eight weeks, an astounding number. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the two major Dravidian parties in the state, is not an ally of the BJP in this election.
With 33 seats, the INDIA bloc—led by the state’s ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)—is predicted to emerge victorious in Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK was only able to secure four seats.
In other parts of the south, the BJP could exact some retribution on the Congress in Karnataka, where it was defeated in the most recent Assembly election. In Karnataka, the NDA is predicted to win 23 of the 28 seats.
With 16 of the 25 seats in the state, the ruling YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh is probably going to continue to hold power. This outcome may portend the YSRCP’s performance in the concurrent Assembly poll.
In Telangana, the Congress, the BJP, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by former Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao are engaged in a close contest that might result in nine victories for the Congress, four for the BJP, and three for the BRS. The AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi may win the 17th seat.