The recent ruling by the Election Commission of India in favour of the Ajit Pawar faction as the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has sent shockwaves through Maharashtra’s political landscape. However, amidst the power struggle between the NCP and Shiv Sena, it is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that may emerge as the ultimate beneficiary. This article explores the potential winners and losers in the ongoing battle within Maharashtra’s political arena and how the alliances formed by the BJP could impact the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024.
- The BJP’s Alliance Strategy:
The BJP has strategically allied itself with both factions of Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, and the NCP, led by Ajit Pawar. This move gives the BJP a significant advantage in the Lok Sabha polls, particularly in Maharashtra, which holds 48 seats. With the recent success in Bihar and an opportunity to strengthen its position in Maharashtra, the BJP aims to achieve its “Abki Bar 400 Paar” mission.
- Shiv Sena’s Split:
The departure of Shiv Sena from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and its subsequent alliance with the Congress-NCP has created a significant shift in Maharashtra’s politics. The split has not only allowed the BJP to come to power in the state but has also weakened the opposition considerably. This realignment has given BJP leaders a strong foothold in the state, potentially propelling them to success in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
- Sharad Pawar’s Dilemma:
Sharad Pawar, the founding member of the NCP, finds himself at the centre of a political storm. The rebellion led by his nephew, Ajit Pawar, and the NCP’s affiliation with the Congress has created uncertainty about Sharad Pawar’s leadership going forward. While Ajit Pawar’s entry and influence may attract the youth, the future remains to be determined. Sharad Pawar’s limited influence in certain regions and the departure of prominent leaders have left a gap in his leadership.
- Impact on NCP’s Vote Bank:
The split within the NCP’s massive vote bank will likely benefit the BJP-led coalition. While Sharad Pawar has expressed intentions to bring new faces into the party, his nephew’s dominance in the political scene raises questions about the party’s future. The realignment between factions will likely sway the outcome of several seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Ajit Pawar’s NCP may face challenges against his uncle Sharad Pawar in the latter’s stronghold, potentially affecting their performance. On the other hand, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, with its traditional opposition to the Congress, is expected to fare better against Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena.
- BJP’s Regional Advantage:
The alliance with NCP, particularly in regions like western Maharashtra where the party has traditionally held a stronghold, is expected to benefit the BJP. By establishing alliances with Shiv Sena and NCP, the BJP aims to achieve its target of winning 45 seats and further consolidating its position in the state. This strategic move could pave the way for the BJP to accomplish its “Mission 400+” in the upcoming elections.
Conclusion:
The recent battles between the NCP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra have not only caused significant political turbulence but have also opened doors for the BJP to consolidate its influence and further its electoral prospects. The alliances formed by the BJP with disgruntled factions of Shiv Sena and NCP have the potential to shape the political landscape of Maharashtra, determining the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. As the dust settles, it will become clearer who the ultimate beneficiaries of this power struggle are.
-Prisha Jaiswal