WHY UTTAR PRADESH ?
Uttar Pradesh’s politics usually revolved around major political parties like BJP, BSP, SP, and Congress but eventually after 2014 politics revolved around SP and BJP with BJP remaining in strong position in both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha Polls. In Lok Sabha Uttar Pradesh is the biggest assembly comprising of 80 seats (63 General and 17 Reserved) which become X factor in the polls. So since independence all political parties try to win the heart of Uttar Pradesh’s public. It is usually assumed if a political party gets more than 60 seats in UP the party will surely become majority party in Lok Sabha.
PREVIOUS RESULTS:
Past 2 Lok Sabha elections people of UP have casted huge amount of votes to BJP making the party monopoly in region. In 2014 polls BJP bagged 71 out of 80 seats (42.6% vote share) while in 2019 it bagged 62 seats (50% vote share) completely wiping out Opposition in the state.
FACTORS FAVOURING BJP:
BJP has a stronghold in Uttar Pradesh due to certain factors major being the Inauguration of Ram Mandir at Ayodhya which was BJP’s manifesto since 1990s. Other important factors favouring BJP are: growth of National Highways, Gareeb Rashan Yojna, State Industrial Policy, ending of “Gundaraj”, uninterrupted electricity and “Har Ghar Jal Yojna” etc,. All these factors are main agenda of BJP and BJP has strong hold over the state.
FACTORS FAVOURING OPP :
Opposition has united themselves and have come under the banner I.N.D.I Alliance which is surely going to affect vote share as on every major seat competition is going to 1v1. Inflation and Unemployment are major topics for Opp. in the upcoming election. However ground report says these factors are though important but can’t cast clouds over the factors BJP has in its favour.
PHASES OF VOTING:
Uttar Pradesh being largest Lok Sabha constituency will conduct elections in all 7 phases. In first 3 phases voting will be held on 26 seats which include Samajwadi Party’s main seats like Mainpuri, Itawa and Badayu. In the 4th and 5th phase polls will conducted on 27 seats important of which are Bundelkhand and Awadh region. In the 6th and 7th phase voting will be done at 27 seats. Important seats of Varanasi where PM himself is candidate and CM’s Yogi’s region Gorakhpur.
ALLIANCE:
BJP has joined its hand with 4 other parties which also include Rashtriya Janta Dal which has made competition for BJP comparatively easier in some particular regions. BSP has not joined hands with anyone and will contest alone. Major Opposition for BJP is going to be I.N.D.I Alliance in which major political parties including Samajwadi Party, INC and Trinamool Congress have joined hands and have shared seats as per their hold over respective regions.
CLIMAX:
Like every year Uttar Pradesh will again decide the fate of political parties but this time situation is different, agendas are different, Arch rivals are now together so ultimately Uttar Pradesh’s results are surely going to be a nail-biter in the modern day politics. Results will be announced on 4 June 2024.
-Samyak Jain