31 July 2023, Mumbai: According to a research report by Standard Chartered Bank, India’s per capita income is expected to experience significant growth, increasing nearly 70 percent to $4,000 by fiscal 2030 from $2,450 in fiscal 2023. This rise will contribute to India’s transformation into a middle-income economy with a $6 trillion GDP, with more than half of this GDP coming from household consumption.
External Trade Driving Growth: Doubling to $2.1 Trillion by 2030
The report identifies external trade as the primary growth driver, projecting a near doubling of external trade to $2.1 trillion by 2030 from $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2023, assuming a 10 percent nominal GDP growth annually from now onwards. The second-biggest growth driver will be household consumption, expected to reach $3.4 trillion by fiscal 2030, approximately the same size as the current GDP, compared to $2.1 trillion in fiscal 2023. Currently, household consumption constitutes about 57 percent of GDP.
PM Modi’s Ambitious Vision: India Aiming for $5 Trillion Economy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed his commitment to make India a $5 trillion economy during his next term in office, positioning it as the third-largest economy after the US and China. Presently, Japan holds the third slot, with Germany following closely at the fourth position.
Nine States Poised for Growth: Heading to Upper Middle-Income Status
The report suggests that as many as nine states have the potential to attain upper middle-income status, with a per capita income of $4,000, compared to the current count of one state. Although the report doesn’t specify the state, Telangana currently leads the per capita income league table with Rs 2,75,443 or USD 3,360 in FY23, followed by Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh.
Gujarat Leads the Way: States Projected to Excel by 2030.
StanC’s report envisions Gujarat taking the lead by fiscal 2030 in per capita income, followed by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Haryana, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. The report refrains from naming the other three states expected to achieve significant growth.